Развитие молодежной миграции:  теоретические концепции и реализуемые модели: DOI: 10.22394/2071-2367-2025-20-2-38-56    EDN EHAPZI

Оксана Валерьевна Ерохина

Авторы

Ерохина Оксана Валерьевна Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации

Ключевые слова:

миграция молодежи, факторы миграции, неоинституциональные теории миграции, структурные теории миграции, «социальные сети» миграции, культура миграции, «цифровые кочевники», междисциплинарный подход к изучению миграции

Аннотация

Целью статьи определить наиболее востребованные в настоящее время теоретические подходы, используемые для изучения миграционных процессов и затрагивающие целевую аудиторию в возрасте от 15 до 24 лет. Автором структурированы: неоинституциональный (включая теорию новой экономики трудовой миграции и “теорию выталкивания”), структурный, междисциплинарный (включая транскультурализм, теорию “жизненного пути” и теорию социальных сетей) подходы, а также относительно новые перспективные направления, представленные в виде концепций (миграция “цифровых кочевников”).

Результаты исследования. Обозначены преимущества и ограничения различных объяснительных моделей, интерпретирующих факторы и закономерности развития молодежной миграции. Классифицированы наиболее распространенные методические подходы к изучению целенаправленных перемещений молодого населения. Систематизированы факторы, используемые для классификации зарубежных исследований молодежной миграции в зависимости от предмета изучения и методологического подхода. Обоснована необходимость разработки комплексного подхода, который может учитывать как экономические, так и социально-политические факторы, способствующие миграции молодежи, а также позволяет оценить эффекты роста/снижения миграционного потока в указанных сферах. Сделан вывод о важности прогнозирования основных тенденций молодежной миграции в современной ситуации роста международной конфликтности.
Предложено использование методов машинного обучения и агент-ориентированного моделирования для прогнозирования сценариев развития молодежной миграции. В качестве наиболее перспективного направления исследований отмечается разработка интегрированного подхода, направленного на выявление взаимосвязей между значимыми для миграции молодежи переменными на микро-, мезо- и макроуровне. Результаты работы могут быть использованы для дополнения представлений о закономерностях развития миграции молодежи, а также для совершенствования системы мониторинга при изучении молодежной миграции в российской политической науке.

Биография автора

Ерохина Оксана Валерьевна, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации

кандидат политических наук, доцент кафедры, Факультет социальных наук и массовых коммуникаций, научный сотрудник
Центра политических исследований

Author ID: 539397, eLibrary SPIN: 9737-3350, Researcher ID AAS-5944-2021, Scopus ID: 57204895897

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Collins, F.L. (2018) Keeping Bodies Moving: Hope, Disruption and the Possibilities of Youth Migration. Journal of Intercultural Studies. no.39, p. 626 - 641. DOI:10.1080/07256868.2018.1533536.

Cook, D. (2023) What is a digital nomad? Definition and taxonomy in the era of mainstream remote work. World Leisure Journal. no.6, p. 256-275. DOI:10.1080/16078055.2023.2190608.

Docquier, F., Marchiori L. (2012) The impact of MENA-to-EU migration in the con-text of demographic change. - Journal of Pension Economics and Finance. no. 11, p. 243-284. DOI:10.1017/S147474721100028X.

Duane, F. (2012) Integrating Varieties of Life Course Concepts. The journals of ger-ontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences. no. 67, p. 206-220. DOI:10.1093/geronb/gbr146.

Fassmann, H., Gruber E. and Nemeth A. (2018) Conceptual framework for the study of youth migration in the Danube region. - YOUMIG Working Papers. no.1, 106 p. URL:https://www.infostat.sk/web2015/sk/images/infostat/projekty/YOUMIG/Vystupy_a_dokumenty/YOUMIG_Working_Paper_No.1.pdf (дата обращения - 20.01.2025) DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.21481.60004.

German, M. and Banerjee, P. (2011) (eds.) Migration, technology and transcul-turation: A global perspective, Missouri: Lindenwood University Press. DOI:10.62608/2158-0669.1034.

Haug, S. (2008) Migration Networks and Migration Decision-Making. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies. no.34, p. 585-605. DOI: 10.1080/13691830801961605.

Heckert, J. (2015) New Perspective on Youth Migration: Motives and Family In-vestment Patterns. Demographic Research. no. 33. p. 765-800. DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2015.33.27.

Hvozdetska, B., Varha, N., Nikon, N. et al. (2020) Migratory Moods and Tempo-rary Employment of Students of Central and Eastern Europe. Italian Sociological Review,

no.10 (2), p. 305-326. DOI:10.13136/isr.v10i2.342.

King, R. (2012) Geography and migration studies: retrospect and prospect. Pop-ulation, space and place. no.18 (2), p. 134-153. DOI: 10.1002/psp.685

Kooiman, N., Latten J., Bontje M. (2018) Human capital migration: A longitudi-nal perspective. Tijdschrift Voor Economische En Sociale Geografie. Vol. 109. no.5, p. 644-660; DOI:10.1111/tesg.12324.

López, Blanco, J. D. (2025) Do languages open doors? A theoretical model of linguistic capi-tal and (im)mobility and its application in Spanish youth migration. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies. Vol 51, no.3, p. 565-582. DOI:10.1080/1369183X.2024.2359676.

Manna, K., Fredericks, L. (2015) The New Economics of Labour Migration (NELM): Econometric Analysis of Remittances from Italy to Rural Bangladesh Based on Kinship Relation. International Journal of Migration Research and Development (IJMRD). Vol 1.

p. 1-21. URL: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2616468 (дата обращения - 10.01.2025).

Marchetti, G., Baldassar L., Harris A. and Robertson, S. (2021) Italian youth mo-bility: The case for a Mediterranean model of ‘family-centred’ mobile transitions. Ethnici-ties. Vol. 22. no.1, p. 108-127. DOI:10.1177/14687968211037083.

Massey, D., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A. and Taylor, J. (1993) Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Develop-ment Review. Vol. 19. no.3, p.431-466. DOI:10.2307/2938462.

Nikou, S. and Luukkonen, M. (2023) The push-pull factor model and its implica-tions for the retention of international students in the host country. Higher Education, Skills and Work-Based Learning. Vol14, no.1. P. 76-94. DOI:10.1108/HESWBL-04-2023-0084.

Panagiotopoulou, J. A. and Rosen, L. (2018) Denied inclusion of migration-related multilingualism: an ethnographic approach to a preparatory class for newly ar-rived children in Germany. Language and Education. no.32, p. 394-409. DOI:10.1080/09500782.2018.1489829.

Prinz, A. L. (2019) Migration, Cultural Identity and Diasporas An Identity Eco-nomics Approach. IZA Journal of Development and Migration. Vol.10, no.1, p. 1-20. DOI:10.2478/izajodm-2019-000.

Roudgar, I. and Richards, C. (2015) The policy challenge of the global brain drain: Addressing the dilemmas of contributing push-pull factors. International Journal of Public Policy. Vol. 11, p. 73-85. DOI:10.1504/IJPP.2015.068841.

Serbeh, R. and Prince, O.-W. (2020) Social Networks and the Geographies of Young People’s Migration: Evidence from Independent Child Migration in Ghana. Journal of International Migration and Integration. no.21, p. 221-240. DOI:10.1007/s12134-019-00720-w.

Simões, F. and Jale, T. (2024) Active Labour Market Policies and Youth Em-ployment in European Peripheries. Politics and Governance. no.12. Article 7958. DOI:10.17645/pag.7958.

Pu, T., Huang, C.X. Zhang, H. Yang, J. & Huang M. (2024) Application of deep learning model incorporating domain knowledge in international migration forecasting. Data Technologies and Applications. Vol. 58. no.5, р. 787-806. DOI:10.1108/DTA-08-2023-0523.

Robertson, Z., Wilding, R. & Gifford, S. (2016) Mediating the family imaginary: young people negotiating absence in transnational refugee families. Global Networks-a Journal of Transnational Affairs. no.16, p. 219-236. DOI:10.1111/glob.12111.

Robeyns, I. (2005) The capability approach: A theoretical survey. Journal of Human Development. Vol 6. no.1, p. 93-117. DOI:10.1080/146498805200034266.

Torok, D., Ball J. (2021) Renegotiating Identity and Agency in Everyday Oppres-sion: Experiences of Forced Migrant Youth in Malaysia. Social Sciences. no.10, Article 296. DOI:10.3390/socsci10080296.

Tufiș, P.A., Sandu, D.D. (2023) Motivation in the dynamics of European youth migration. European Societies. no.25, p. 829-858. DOI:10.1080/14616696.2023.2183231

Waldorf, B.S. & Yun S.D. (2016) Labor migration and overeducation among young college graduates. Review of Regional Research. no.36, p. 99-119. DOI:10.1007/s10037-015-0101-0.

Welch N.G. & Raftery A.E. (2022) Probabilistic forecasts of international bilat-eral migration flows. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 119 p. DOI:10.1073/pnas.2203822119.

Williams, A. M., Calvin, J., Hania, J., Gang, Li. (2018) The migration intentions of young adults in Europe: A comparative, multilevel analysis. Population Space and Place. no.24(3), p. 1-26. DOI:10.1002/psp.2123.

Zhang H. (2025) Youth migration culture, youth transition and lifestyle: The case of Polish and Chinese international student migrants in London. Gdańskie Studia Azji Wschodniej. no.1, p. 114-130. DOI: 10.4467/23538724GS.24.023.21052.